Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.2 pts to -47.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.5 pts to -41.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.8 pts to -34.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.1 pts to -27.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.4 pts to -21.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.7 pts to -14.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.0 pts to -7.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.3 pts to -1.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.4 pts to 5.7 pts | 5.4% |
| 9.1 pts to 12.4 pts | 2.2% |
| 15.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · AZ-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +30.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026