Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -35.9 pts to -33.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -30.2 pts to -27.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.5 pts to -21.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -18.8 pts to -15.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.1 pts to -10.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -7.4 pts to -4.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -1.7 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts to 4.0 pts | 13.7% |
| 6.9 pts to 9.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 12.6 pts to 15.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 18.3 pts to 21.1 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · AZ-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 27.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +13.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +7.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026