Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 11.4 pts to 14.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.4 pts to 22.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.5 pts to 29.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.6 pts to 36.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.7 pts to 43.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.7 pts to 50.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.8 pts to 57.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.9 pts to 64.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.0 pts to 71.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 75.0 pts to 78.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 82.1 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AZ-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +26.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +46.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±18.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026