Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -23.0 pts to -20.1 pts | 1.2% |
| -17.2 pts to -14.3 pts | 3.5% |
| -11.4 pts to -8.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -5.7 pts to -2.8 pts | 13.7% |
| 0.1 pts to 3.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 5.9 pts to 8.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.7 pts to 14.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.4 pts to 20.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.2 pts to 26.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.0 pts to 31.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AZ-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 65.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +2.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · D +2.0 pts Normington, Petts & Associates poll, 2026-06-11 · Normington, Petts & Associates
D +5.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026