Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -50.2 pts to -45.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -41.0 pts to -36.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.9 pts to -27.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -22.7 pts to -18.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.6 pts to -9.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -4.4 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.1 pts to 4.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 9.3 pts to 13.9 pts | 13.7% |
| 18.4 pts to 23.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 27.6 pts to 32.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 36.7 pts to 41.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · AZ-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 33.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +4.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026