Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.4 pts | 0.4% |
| 1.5 pts to 4.4 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.3 pts to 10.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.2 pts to 16.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.0 pts to 21.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.8 pts to 27.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.6 pts to 33.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.4 pts to 39.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.2 pts to 45.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.0 pts to 50.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.8 pts to 56.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AZ-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 86.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +7.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +27.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026