Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.1 pts to 13.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.2 pts to 22.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.3 pts to 31.9 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.5 pts to 41.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 45.6 pts to 50.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.7 pts to 59.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.9 pts to 68.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.0 pts to 77.6 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 82.1 pts to 86.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 91.3 pts to 95.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 100 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AZ-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +45.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +54.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026