55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -29.0 pts to -26.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -23.3 pts to -20.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -17.7 pts to -14.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -12.1 pts to -9.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.5 pts to -3.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -0.9 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.9 pts to 4.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 7.5 pts to 10.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.2 pts to 16.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 18.8 pts to 21.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 24.4 pts to 27.2 pts | 1.2% |
Live model read · AZ-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 55.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +9.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +0.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026