Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -19.1 pts to -16.0 pts | 1.2% |
| -13.0 pts to -9.9 pts | 3.5% |
| -6.8 pts to -3.8 pts | 7.9% |
| -0.7 pts | 6.1% |
| 2.3 pts to 5.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.4 pts to 11.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.6 pts to 17.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.7 pts to 23.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.8 pts to 29.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.9 pts to 35.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.0 pts to 42.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AZ-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 72.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +3.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +11.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026