Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -58.8 pts to -56.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -53.2 pts to -50.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -47.6 pts to -44.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -41.9 pts to -39.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -36.3 pts to -33.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -30.7 pts to -27.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -25.1 pts to -22.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -19.4 pts to -16.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.8 pts to -11.0 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -8.2 pts to -5.4 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -2.6 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · AR-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +45.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +30.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026