Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.3 pts to -52.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.7 pts to -46.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -44.1 pts to -41.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -38.4 pts to -35.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -32.8 pts to -30.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -27.2 pts to -24.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -18.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -15.9 pts to -13.1 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.3 pts to -7.5 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -4.7 pts to -1.9 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 0.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · AR-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +33.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +27.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026