Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -45.0 pts to -42.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.4 pts to -36.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.7 pts to -30.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -28.1 pts to -25.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.5 pts to -19.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -16.8 pts to -14.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -11.2 pts to -8.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.6 pts to -2.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 0.0 pts to 2.9 pts | 5.4% |
| 5.7 pts to 8.5 pts | 2.2% |
| 11.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · AR-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 15.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +17.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +16.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026