Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -59.5 pts to -56.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -53.9 pts to -51.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -48.3 pts to -45.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -42.6 pts to -39.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -37.0 pts to -34.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -31.4 pts to -28.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -25.8 pts to -22.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -20.1 pts to -17.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.5 pts to -11.7 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -8.9 pts to -6.1 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -3.3 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · AR-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +50.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +31.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026