Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -11.7 pts to -6.9 pts | 1.2% |
| -2.2 pts | 1.4% |
| 2.6 pts to 7.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.1 pts to 16.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 21.6 pts to 26.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.1 pts to 35.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.6 pts to 45.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.1 pts to 54.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.6 pts to 64.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.1 pts to 73.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.6 pts to 83.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AL-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +27.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +35.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026