Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -64.6 pts to -61.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -58.9 pts to -56.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -53.2 pts to -50.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -47.5 pts to -44.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -41.8 pts to -39.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -36.2 pts to -33.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -30.5 pts to -27.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.8 pts to -22.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.1 pts to -16.3 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -13.4 pts to -10.6 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -7.8 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · AL-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +40.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +36.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026