Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -71.6 pts to -68.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -65.2 pts to -62.0 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -58.8 pts to -55.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -52.5 pts to -49.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -46.1 pts to -42.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -39.7 pts to -36.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -33.3 pts to -30.2 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.0 pts to -23.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.6 pts to -17.4 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -14.2 pts to -11.0 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -7.9 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · AL-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +39.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026