Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -72.1 pts to -68.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -65.7 pts to -62.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -59.4 pts to -56.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -53.0 pts to -49.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -46.6 pts to -43.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -40.2 pts to -37.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -33.9 pts to -30.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.5 pts to -24.3 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.1 pts to -17.9 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -14.8 pts to -11.6 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -8.4 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · AL-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +40.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026