Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -23.4 pts to -19.5 pts | 1.2% |
| -15.7 pts to -11.8 pts | 3.5% |
| -7.9 pts to -4.1 pts | 7.9% |
| -0.2 pts | 6.1% |
| 3.6 pts to 7.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.4 pts to 15.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.1 pts to 23.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.8 pts to 30.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.5 pts to 38.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.3 pts to 46.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.0 pts to 53.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AL-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 82.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +9.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +15.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026