Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -69.4 pts to -65.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -61.9 pts to -58.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -54.4 pts to -50.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -46.8 pts to -43.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -39.3 pts to -35.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -31.8 pts to -28.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -24.2 pts to -20.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -16.7 pts to -12.9 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -5.4 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -1.6 pts | 1.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts | 0.8% |
| 5.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · AL-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +57.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +31.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026