Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 3.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 47.1% |
| Average district margin | D +8.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 8 |
| Expected dem seats | 3.7709104459851965 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.47136380574814957 |
| Pre poll state margin | 5.856664352598066 |
| Final state margin | 8.57077924201082 |
| Polling effect | 2.714114889412754 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8708116603072245 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 3 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4047318060197053 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -2.1632355130749654 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9605134123139006 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.14167374992359 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6590444283751491 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.955208005073903 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9670100315755144 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.05346811755254 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1234933437028243 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.884283558629924 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.15216566507013607 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.839786607046857 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.26146420454227065 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.06641813032778 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.24248755438569605 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.63039212738395 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |