Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 7.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 78.1% |
| Average district margin | D +32.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.1 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 10 |
| Expected dem seats | 7.806060961867673 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.7806060961867674 |
| Pre poll state margin | 29.509888703619072 |
| Final state margin | 32.57464349400776 |
| Polling effect | 3.06475479038869 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.0687886095202774 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 3 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9425031565044216 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.52421502917415 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9458720024210101 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 49.013202511558525 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8414800749787392 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 25.391939851465494 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16761631203164346 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -12.404025447450433 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2957500855625039 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -6.2145774677341326 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9010199844740655 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 37.60000351460245 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9696235432279519 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 59.79374405491615 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8710383384478106 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.39002567825436 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9542828519287304 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.124396362740804 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.916874612290796 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 40.527510852550286 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |