Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 0.5 seats |
| Average district win probability | 11.8% |
| Average district margin | R +15.9 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.0 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 4 |
| Expected dem seats | 0.47189810659772213 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.11797452664943053 |
| Pre poll state margin | -18.865317726593133 |
| Final state margin | -15.902901360043801 |
| Polling effect | 2.9624163665493337 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9060390603702042 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13026351819941517 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.307095230062185 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12513047842814007 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.05446449886009 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09657837481411097 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.190998919041323 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11992573515605592 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -14.059046792211607 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |