Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 1.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 26.0% |
| Average district margin | R +8.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 7 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.8193305088315719 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.25990435840451026 |
| Pre poll state margin | -11.47248724324547 |
| Final state margin | -8.64763951061423 |
| Polling effect | 2.8248477326312385 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8175264553594892 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.28289706183837005 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -6.178364266064754 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1532522877624428 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.331057090201158 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0736133983990506 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -27.186115836156887 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12456896636456845 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.40336419549568 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.14785771669226147 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.729425235111972 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9358792861435636 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.88237513751818 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10126179163131487 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.58752508878735 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |