Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 0.5 seats |
| Average district win probability | 9.3% |
| Average district margin | R +26.5 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 5 |
| Expected dem seats | 0.4670387315502676 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.09340774631005352 |
| Pre poll state margin | -29.116682622153565 |
| Final state margin | -26.487492841386132 |
| Polling effect | 2.629189780767433 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6916387837494233 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12236067286450798 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.17809517615488 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0689964108498921 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -32.26059388692873 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06268242798211554 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -34.23309056464439 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08145540209258814 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -29.28858529038896 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13154381776116383 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.477099288813687 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |