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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 5.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 41.7% |
| Average district margin | D +5.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 14 |
| Expected dem seats | 5.831902742567742 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.41656448161198156 |
| Pre poll state margin | 2.9669209060368185 |
| Final state margin | 5.598616567698661 |
| Polling effect | 2.6316956616618428 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6944858806397567 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 28 |
| State environment shift | 0.027308032794267776 |
| State environment poll margin | 8.90506371459914 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8237036104274829 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 21.950743804316037 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9561430676489879 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.02983301788617 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08345442602859804 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.707405960443943 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9643335708229795 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.49512299322188 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.20055623466570233 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.039954167194779 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09142310536732853 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.655830640036676 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2408978839860208 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -7.858923302916059 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.18887241814740374 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.91714355925119 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.20771182013886016 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -9.267853253508136 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.176924763156071 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.678308973197373 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.32938545970635247 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.442288139693411 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9649588415182738 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.25438348152516 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.28645021241771307 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -5.449743601363031 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3170873285359676 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.331999751563394 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |