Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 0.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 37.5% |
| Average district margin | R +5.1 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.9 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 2 |
| Expected dem seats | 0.7500718127875442 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.3750359063937721 |
| Pre poll state margin | -8.054863660189685 |
| Final state margin | -5.112117011810652 |
| Polling effect | 2.9427466483790337 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8933834284467497 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6495318359112066 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.638083280047596 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10053997687633766 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.8623173036689 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |