Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 1.2 seats |
| Average district win probability | 28.9% |
| Average district margin | R +11.1 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 4 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.1545225784068427 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.2886306446017107 |
| Pre poll state margin | -13.72312690941024 |
| Final state margin | -11.132984212852367 |
| Polling effect | 2.590142696557872 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6665156212738936 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0816422506141512 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -26.741264762095 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9365364518061209 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.61266017536573 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06297761502890652 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -31.025853467107964 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07336626095766415 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -28.377478797572238 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |