Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 2.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 32.6% |
| Average district margin | R +3.5 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 8 |
| Expected dem seats | 2.6052019778770474 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.32565024723463093 |
| Pre poll state margin | -6.24586847890048 |
| Final state margin | -3.5205920539870617 |
| Polling effect | 2.725276424913418 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.7534615913027953 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.968602342916205 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 55.15414221558268 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.25359690191130146 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.776952888922336 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11196091299234627 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.707763199892256 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07563529706962231 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -25.919280547323922 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9381825442186538 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 43.34129188803253 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11255219255901343 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.00132394606947 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07523983851342973 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -25.97105679800326 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06943194769647554 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -27.283793155300458 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |