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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 8.0 seats |
| Average district win probability | 61.6% |
| Average district margin | D +18.3 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 13 |
| Expected dem seats | 8.003578295238542 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.6156598688645032 |
| Pre poll state margin | 15.422177733564386 |
| Final state margin | 18.263981857194395 |
| Polling effect | 2.8418041236300073 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9849756853447842 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.629056032861259 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.21598049300409927 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.854124518350593 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13476159880517044 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -14.939023114993084 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8828604279538692 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 33.78356060899152 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.433075686764938 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.7263441708227534 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13889229178944676 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -14.46767131235913 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9454942858248352 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 50.32195374746127 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7013409386031512 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.841540146529685 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8631095799323669 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 29.788116776711302 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12475173497892145 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.208150778172346 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7121974281613697 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 12.335929952114501 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9221620982012717 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.994772082397965 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9642853207486415 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.659060886015965 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.964666410470461 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.90214383800283 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |