Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 1.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 85.6% |
| Average district margin | D +29.1 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.3 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 2 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.7122388306210359 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.8561194153105179 |
| Pre poll state margin | 25.802150595524232 |
| Final state margin | 29.08834227795883 |
| Polling effect | 3.2861916824346027 |
| Polling uncertainty | 3.9588760196170134 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.935996543473576 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.46516602946688 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7762422871474599 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 16.711518526450785 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |