Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 7.0 seats |
| Average district win probability | 87.0% |
| Average district margin | D +46.2 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.1 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 8 |
| Expected dem seats | 6.959294920234385 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.8699118650292981 |
| Pre poll state margin | 43.13361495542582 |
| Final state margin | 46.21746310476543 |
| Polling effect | 3.0838481493396097 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9841691044052556 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.380396520645979 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.9741241694688041 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9231004993027564 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 45.5345776123312 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9322296808030066 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.06622223015208 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9703363325373962 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.176065687609714 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.956633981877965 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 55.08084503880042 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8593748417255497 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.319792173491194 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9691963014280216 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 62.548794669130395 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9680267619137106 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 61.98753159607723 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |