Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 2.2 seats |
| Average district win probability | 36.3% |
| Average district margin | R +11.4 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 6 |
| Expected dem seats | 2.17827236585214 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.36304539430869 |
| Pre poll state margin | -14.249801198847452 |
| Final state margin | -11.414591186474693 |
| Polling effect | 2.8352100123727593 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8241936173981692 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0710903040286721 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -36.40398256885475 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9609393910307853 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.32016768892945 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07212061725579215 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -36.35706260068861 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06278890475920196 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -39.15937470035685 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08113555094749807 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -29.379298085996552 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9301975978301904 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.492003148119153 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |