Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 1.3 seats |
| Average district win probability | 22.1% |
| Average district margin | R +19.4 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 6 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.326425588650603 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.22107093144176715 |
| Pre poll state margin | -22.120256121584728 |
| Final state margin | -19.406057621593558 |
| Polling effect | 2.7141984999911704 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.7463339782339256 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0720999684512252 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -32.89179185919625 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07447679870780707 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -32.27991239413343 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9353959800679041 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 38.51775099804592 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06269098055732736 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -35.09528009858288 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06268511633018484 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -35.71934556081185 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11907674453615412 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.967766814882836 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |