Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 2.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 28.5% |
| Average district margin | R +6.0 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 9 |
| Expected dem seats | 2.565257478888514 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.28502860876539043 |
| Pre poll state margin | -8.532182387979768 |
| Final state margin | -5.967266969246115 |
| Polling effect | 2.564915418733653 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6502842172542822 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8726046599189472 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 29.26026511338982 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1083350360414817 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.62396246409825 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09177607407828964 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.096444103954855 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09071427371804042 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.238232829120573 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16556885115178954 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.108709210243484 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0944044931868782 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.642064369948006 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9606621816155212 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.0699294573447 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08372210569536334 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -22.292920706719872 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09746980348220308 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.03326360986451 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |