Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 13.3 seats |
| Average district win probability | 78.3% |
| Average district margin | D +32.0 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.1 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 17 |
| Expected dem seats | 13.302510506079399 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.7825006180046705 |
| Pre poll state margin | 28.912438335172737 |
| Final state margin | 32.02024749014348 |
| Polling effect | 3.107809154970744 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9995857801887107 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.951679116412713 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 50.22772445565214 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9558734373878726 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 50.28065194623724 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9552834701005146 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 51.62158939121249 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9620067953652451 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 52.938514738977325 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9586472761125999 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.030214133958495 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8725043167530335 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 29.60605793836943 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.969409656678359 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.68703010632922 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9032256190512943 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.339579880645395 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9575648176642617 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 51.24784990945412 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9259917500751742 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.24450401679029 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8885661719085378 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 32.630156761527346 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12688390653083662 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.97103586195878 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9124485923266221 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 37.7550585280839 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.883137005803198 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 31.11405230124654 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10102374813969811 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.570834368050043 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1031293952577747 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.180897476715437 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8751354305116633 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 29.343990930679535 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |