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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 6.4 seats |
| Average district win probability | 45.4% |
| Average district margin | D +10.3 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.0 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 14 |
| Expected dem seats | 6.362650032048041 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.4544750022891458 |
| Pre poll state margin | 7.297094229489835 |
| Final state margin | 10.272581337676295 |
| Polling effect | 2.9754871081864587 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9719317051863954 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 11 |
| State environment shift | -0.006471336232004426 |
| State environment poll margin | 7.717558666055413 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.28600529169057415 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -6.030335245752294 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8962206824906314 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.38479726376642 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10684045504396622 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.816363204792804 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9661629586523666 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.00486183849897 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9699006721857886 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.81377933463485 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9654812833647042 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.74055989716722 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13590992304258637 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.473494657622304 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0947896954064901 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.39441357714582 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09378066958534692 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.690411691843394 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2549964241803624 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -7.992364256980528 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.20822492260839656 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.0939854553093 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.18467787293221 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.90485070092178 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9627626482202487 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 55.61778784517245 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.23689653264436916 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -9.349428661403577 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |