Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 10.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 37.8% |
| Average district margin | D +0.4 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 28 |
| Expected dem seats | 10.59775449239121 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.37849123187111466 |
| Pre poll state margin | -2.3587634650270934 |
| Final state margin | 0.3628066402947297 |
| Polling effect | 2.7215701053218244 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.201703506819533 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 2 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| State environment poll count | 10 |
| State environment shift | -0.002606904637309592 |
| State environment poll margin | -7.89613130366516 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09940410657928465 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.284610124365212 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2323824050512192 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.51830403947626 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.13663927300100542 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.75684051821358 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2299740865692 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -9.611613966773351 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11758552429343605 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.51074431319812 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09587742941527384 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.348489806696463 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.26180952598327417 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.082948059247286 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1286229939142796 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.6465544419264 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8968432514349715 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 32.56826126332226 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9385995558909641 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 44.18291882345952 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.15302681964864595 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -14.430957428217377 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08115207713166524 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.25102093226628 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3623636221431802 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.155935560172845 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9095348056109408 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 36.114232469079774 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.27550392611409885 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -7.530731766761619 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.27906625189683965 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -6.330863317317673 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11383666829545844 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.177550034094384 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10222061108395854 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.44939019896469 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16328743862839207 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.803736132369455 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709926644896163 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 62.069245105811675 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1339443571436001 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.02396974700611 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8810028860397707 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 29.804681848201234 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8468975481322576 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 23.25501688521054 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9572137465951165 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 51.47880634622981 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8752783916800595 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 28.730551076179047 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08141728722180548 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.232839417749215 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16408060647295042 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.222038330591015 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10919663192994541 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.67598975383409 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |