Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 4.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 91.5% |
| Average district margin | D +37.0 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.1 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 5 |
| Expected dem seats | 4.576942323835118 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.9153884647670235 |
| Pre poll state margin | 33.84724986024803 |
| Final state margin | 36.96712668142559 |
| Polling effect | 3.119876821177556 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.007350199605717 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9473664420629623 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 45.21395444180624 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9116476841225819 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 35.529028740135765 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9186093357734681 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 36.61854146568247 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9375726921104641 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.791875044195415 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8617461697656408 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 25.682233715308058 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |