Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 6.0 seats |
| Average district win probability | 74.6% |
| Average district margin | D +25.9 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 8 |
| Expected dem seats | 5.970316184537417 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.7462895230671771 |
| Pre poll state margin | 23.18622258900749 |
| Final state margin | 25.934780927102405 |
| Polling effect | 2.7485583380949175 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9221729265283471 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 1 |
| Direct house poll count | 1 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9675889359198458 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.81156211933863 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9607219815045851 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.538043860985155 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6616988890795955 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 7.266751028318206 |
| Direct house poll count | 1 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4089169702235598 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -1.722933763129126 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3736838061995186 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -2.74135988775528 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9293939993825469 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 43.600330387572576 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9059437065920075 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 37.19246887439244 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.762367895635758 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 11.533384797096645 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |