Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 2.1 seats |
| Average district win probability | 30.1% |
| Average district margin | R +19.5 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 7 |
| Expected dem seats | 2.1059946672177077 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.30085638103110107 |
| Pre poll state margin | -22.313868337412593 |
| Final state margin | -19.544657440004205 |
| Polling effect | 2.7692108974083913 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.7817293330077615 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06942775900657486 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -31.75699005892099 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8270378711723548 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 15.234399824844136 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06267419007295173 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -39.976597470937094 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06267343896066525 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -40.24629311293192 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06267500133162233 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -39.7178620348099 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07979718482441045 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -36.1642325701941 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9417092218491281 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 35.81497334292045 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |