Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 0.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 61.2% |
| Average district margin | D +5.2 pts |
| Polling effect | -0.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 1 |
| Expected dem seats | 0.6116164616279454 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.6116164616279454 |
| Pre poll state margin | 5.766938275170828 |
| Final state margin | 5.170663771244517 |
| Polling effect | -0.596274503926311 |
| Polling uncertainty | 10.031379019406451 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 1 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| Direct house poll count | 5 |
| State environment poll count | 12 |
| State environment shift | -0.050390443038970056 |
| State environment poll margin | 1.2685425900219691 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6116164616279454 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.170663771244517 |
| Direct house poll count | 5 |