Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +12.8 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 44.4% |
| 80% margin range | ±139.2 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +0.6 pts |
| Current rating | Toss-up |
| Tipping-point rank | 242 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | 5.766475517444142 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 3.617349180324109 |
| Gov margin lag | 15.36 |
| Sen margin lag | 8.922881002294432 |
| Boundary geoid | 5101 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 804410 |
| Acs median household income | 104610 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 47.5947789038248 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.513971106195237 |
| Acs median age | 42.0 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 28.6156313322808 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 5.820042018373715 |
| Fec receipts dem | 4004617.14 |
| Fec receipts rep | 4053141.52 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1167755.2 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 4292789.47 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -48524.37999999989 |
| Fec cash advantage | -3125034.27 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 11 |
| Lag soft | -12.078574164739324 |
| Lag margin raw | -12.803125692843793 |
| Lag dem share | 0.435984371535781 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5640156284642189 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | 2.7730572256933192 |
| Lag centered | -14.851631390432644 |
| Abs lag centered | 14.851631390432644 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 0.29246907654023957 |
| State trend | -0.035668462894973274 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -12.371043241279564 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.3960712917630338 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -8.234389853240264 |
| Baseline lean effect | -18.580823606260516 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | 2.7738238973258764 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | 1.7961067411944887 |
| Pre poll margin | -2.9759568366453983 |
| Sigma idio | 3.9938745192751584 |
| National component sd | 3.9842820412049598 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 108.63795978278124 |
| Rich prob | 0.4970621817692526 |
| Simple prob | 0.3791309225127064 |
| Raw prob | 0.4439931151038068 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8209018113757147 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4439931151038068 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.668896932055187 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.668896932055187 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.668896932055187 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 3.9938745192751584 |
| Poll measurement sd | 108.01983907241124 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.070177101027734 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 108.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 2.3833500600078508 |
| Polling uncertainty | 80.01469560919351 |
| Poll national shift | 2.3833511515524073 |
| Poll state shift | -1.0915445563868077e-06 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 51 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.5926067766375476 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 74 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | -1.0915445563868077e-06 |
| State environment shift | -1.0915445563868077e-06 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll margin | 8.911700552425494 |
| Environment effective variance | 1000000.0 |
| Environment poll count | 51 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll margin | 8.911700552425494 |
| Raw total sigma | 80.47256280206017 |
| Margin low 80 | -139.82301603425 |
| Margin high 80 | 138.6378024809749 |
| Tipping point rank | 242 |
| Prob change since last update | 4.2021726308849594e-05 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · VA-01. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 208445.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 269657.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 478102.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.5984371535781Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.401562846421896Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -12.803125692843793Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 51| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.42308225460616Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.57691774539384Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -13.153835490787683Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 71| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 41.767049428315424Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 58.23295057168457Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -16.465901143369145Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 54| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.75662769735374Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.24337230264626Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.486744605292516Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 76| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 76 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 76 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 76 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 37.94764392260875Compare report · PDF page 76 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 62.05235607739126Compare report · PDF page 76 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -24.10471215478251Compare report · PDF page 76 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 50| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 35.33689682228325Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 64.66310317771675Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -29.3262063554335Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 65| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.26617722727025Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.73382277272976Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -15.467645545459511Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 53| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 35.257034787093815Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 64.74296521290619Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -29.48593042581237Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 65| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.46240872100736Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.53759127899264Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -15.075182557985272Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · VA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 48| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 36.04137403765802Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 63.958625962341976Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -27.91725192468396Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Boundary geoid | 5101 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 804410 |
| Acs median household income | 104610 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 47.5947789038248 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.513971106195237 |
| Acs median age | 42.0 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 28.6156313322808 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 5.820042018373715 |
| Fec receipts dem | 4004617.14 |
| Fec receipts rep | 4053141.52 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1167755.2 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 4292789.47 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -48524.37999999989 |
| Fec cash advantage | -3125034.27 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 17Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 14Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 74Original report |