Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +32.6 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 9.7% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.5 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +20.0 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 366 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 9 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -18.958298784646736 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -20.847426211321025 |
| Gov margin lag | -13.27728495253772 |
| Sen margin lag | -19.87192466722287 |
| Boundary geoid | 1809 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 760136 |
| Acs median household income | 71567 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 27.360510655119825 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.863262603235909 |
| Acs median age | 39.4 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 11.875901154530244 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 4.429996737425935 |
| Fec receipts dem | 433385.66 |
| Fec receipts rep | 1856572.42 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 34652.11 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1183065.62 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -1423186.7599999998 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1148413.51 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 9 |
| Lag soft | -23.853954811028924 |
| Lag margin raw | -32.55700538830275 |
| Lag dem share | 0.3372149730584863 |
| Lag rep share | 0.6627850269415138 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -14.286209831774736 |
| Lag centered | -9.567744979254188 |
| Abs lag centered | 9.567744979254188 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -0.6667406165976715 |
| State trend | 0.6197770456645131 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -23.187214194431252 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.0 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -28.771180118114643 |
| Baseline lean effect | -24.02408072868287 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -14.753567537694476 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -0.6377515513738409 |
| Pre poll margin | -22.4420415466542 |
| Sigma idio | 2.4510424831420496 |
| National component sd | 4.026788359974015 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.336119535011964 |
| Rich prob | 0.008522659883756403 |
| Simple prob | 0.2061829789914157 |
| Raw prob | 0.09746980348220308 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8296596035479471 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09746980348220308 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.4510424831420496 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.092262788450121 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.092262788450121 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 2.40877793678969 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.5498242877408304 |
| Poll national shift | 2.40877793678969 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.03326360986451 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 25 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.397125581490343 |
| Margin low 80 | -34.56163440593584 |
| Margin high 80 | -5.504892813793175 |
| Tipping point rank | 366 |
| Prob change since last update | 4.5020962065739356e-05 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · IN-09. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 113400.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 222884.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 336284.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 33.72149730584863Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 66.27850269415137Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -32.55700538830274Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 19| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 34.58737309586688Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 65.41262690413312Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -30.82525380826624Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 27| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 35.565240857400696Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 64.4347591425993Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -28.86951828519861Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.517675716112485Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.48232428388752Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -12.964648567775036Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 23| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.769908780752935Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.23009121924707Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -14.460182438494137Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 35.129302087989274Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 64.87069791201073Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -29.741395824021453Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 22| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.55295459118653Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.447045408813466Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.894090817626932Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 20| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.68422113190217Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.31577886809783Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.63155773619566Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 23| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 60.06461018521586Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 39.93538981478413Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 20.12922037043173Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · IN-09. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 52.36697752260303Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 47.63302247739696Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 4.733955045206066Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 9 |
| Boundary geoid | 1809 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 760136 |
| Acs median household income | 71567 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 27.360510655119825 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.863262603235909 |
| Acs median age | 39.4 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 11.875901154530244 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 4.429996737425935 |
| Fec receipts dem | 433385.66 |
| Fec receipts rep | 1856572.42 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 34652.11 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1183065.62 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -1423186.7599999998 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1148413.51 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 9Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 13Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 10Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 25Original report |